The future of GVB's old diesel buses

GVB is working to transition from diesel buses to electric buses. This is part of the Amsterdam transport company’s plan to drive emission-free by 2025. The old diesel buses will soon be obsolete. This raises the question: what is the best and most sustainable destination for diesel buses that are outgoing? We conducted social cost-benefit analyses (SCBA) for three scenarios on behalf of GVB.

Scenario 1: decommissioning 
The first scenario is to dismantle the buses in the Netherlands. Due to the high recycling standards in the Netherlands, this option is good for the environment. However, the buses have virtually no residual value in this scenario. Moreover, the fact that the buses have a remaining lifetime is not exploited.

Scenario 2: selling to bus companies in Eastern Europe
Selling the buses to bus companies in Eastern Europe is the second scenario. This contributes to the sustainability of local public transport. This is because, in most cases, the buses in Eastern Europe are a lot more polluting than GVB’s diesel buses. Moreover, recycling standards in Eastern Europe have improved greatly in recent years. As a result, diesel buses are also recycled at the end of their useful life in Eastern Europe.

Scenario 3: selling to bus companies in West Africa
The final scenario is to sell the buses to bus companies in West Africa. This contributes to the expansion of local public transport. In the region, however, the infrastructure still consists of many unpaved roads. The technology in CFP’s diesel buses is not sufficiently suitable for this. The remaining service life of the buses is expected to drop sharply in West Africa. Moreover, transporting the buses to West Africa is expensive and environmentally polluting.

Best option for responsible exit
The study shows that the second scenario, selling the buses to bus companies in Eastern Europe, is the best option. However, it is essential here for GVB to check whether the diesel buses there are replacing old buses and whether the countries in question have sufficient recycling standards. Only then will the second scenario achieve the maximum return.

Want to know more about the analysis? Check out the infographic below or contact Geert Smit.