Looking ahead review of National Strategic Plan agricultural policy

The National Strategic Plan 2023-2027 (NSP) takes a first and robust step toward meeting the goals of the transition. However, in no theme can it be expected that in the program period through 2027 the goals will be met independently by the NSP. This will require additional policies in and after the program period. The main effects of the NSP are expected to be in the areas of climate, biodiversity, water (quantity and quality) and soil quality. And economic goals such as competitiveness. This is evident from our ex ante evaluation of the NSP, conducted in 2021, together with Aequator Groen & Ruimte, commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV). The evaluation was presented to the Lower House by the minister, Henk Staghouwer, on February 24, 2022.

The NSP is the Dutch interpretation of the new European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The ex ante (forward-looking) evaluation is a mandatory part of it. During the evaluation period, the evaluators looked at various building blocks of the program to ultimately strengthen the NSP by providing critical, objective and periodic comments.

The plan includes an analysis of problems and opportunities, a choice of social tasks and instruments to be deployed. The evaluators recommend that further details of the instruments be considered area by area and adjusted over time based on practical experience.

The instruments and the NSP as a whole will almost certainly not achieve the final goal of the intended transition. This is because the NSP runs through 2027 and such a transition cannot be achieved within this period. Therefore, the NSP should also not be judged on its end goal. The plan, with its financial incentives and instruments, focuses on the first steps in the transition. The assessment of impacts at the strategic and tactical levels is positive. The main effects of the NSP are to be expected for societal goals on climate, biodiversity, water (quantity and quality) and soil quality. And strengthen the Dutch agricultural sector economically to remain competitive.

Curious about our recommendations? Also read the full report in Dutch (pdf). For information, please contact Bart Witmond.