Assessment of the Effectiveness of Trade Defence Instruments (TDI)

Ecorys is leading a year-long assignment for DG TRADE to evaluate the effectiveness of the EU’s Trade Defence Instruments (TDI), specifically anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures.

This study assesses how these tools protect EU industry from unfair practices while ensuring compliance with EU and WTO regulations, providing an evidence-based analysis of whether TDIs successfully restore fair competition and mitigate injury to producers. Beyond direct impacts, the study examines the broader economic footprint of these measures on competitiveness, employment, and downstream users across the entire value chain.

The assignment is structured around four primary goals:

• Methodological Refinement: Developing a robust intervention logic and “Theory of Change” to map how TDI measures translate into market outcomes.
• Empirical Data Collection: Building a dual-track dataset combining quantitative trade flows (import volumes, prices, and market shares) with qualitative stakeholder evidence.
• Causal Impact Assessment: Utilizing advanced econometric modelling, including difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods, to isolate the actual impact of TDI measures from external market factors.
• Policy Recommendations: Providing actionable insights to improve the design and implementation of future trade defence actions, ensuring they remain fit for purpose.

The geographical scope covers the European Union while benchmarking EU practices against those of major global trading partners to ensure international competitiveness.

The project began in April 2026 and will run until April 2027.
For more information, please contact Camilo.Giraldo@ecorys.com